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The Life of a RIG Wanted to write a brief note on one of the myths about the economy that I keep seeing come up, namely, "RIGs cause inflation." I've mentioned before that Cash Shop is mostly anti-inflationary, but the RIG one keeps coming up with some regularity. Note that I know I will not convince 95% of the people that believe this; they are beholden to their position and cannot be swayed neither clever argument not reasoned analysis nor copious amounts of data, but there are some users that find this stuff interesting. I've run this analysis before when we were looking at guidelines for balancing the economy, but I wanted to get recent data. So, what I did was took one of the Chance Items a month ago (Crystal Overdrive), and took every Crystal Overdrive that was purchased during a full day after release (namely, March 10th). I then walked through one month of history, and tracked every transformation of those original Crystal Overdrives: - converted to another item via the choices presented when you clicked on it - totaled up the amount if it was sold to someone else on the marketplace - totaled up the amount if it was sold back to the store Lifespan Of A Rig Out of 100 Crystal Overdrives sold: - 10 were kept - 50 were sold to another user on the marketplace for a total of 14.1m (actually, some were sold multiple times) - 40 were sold back to the store for a total of 1.1m There was a 2% marketplace taken out, so the end result: - 60 items generated - 1.1m - 0.02 * 14.1m = 0.8m generated (Actually, one thing to note is that those 60 items keep generating marketplace transactions; items that are sold back tend to be sold back very quickly, but the items that remain will show up on the marketplace outside of the one month span for the study). Let's compare 100 Crystal overdrives vs. 120 dolphins (equivalent cash expenditures normalized / month), and furthermore let's assume that the dolphins are only making 50% of their money back, and take current bonus levels: 120 dolphins, normalized to one month: - 120 items / 4 = 30 items generated - (250k + 250k * 3.5) * 120 = 135m / 4 months = 33.75m So, over a month, the dolphins will generate half as many items and more than a magnitude more gold. You can see why we want try to drive the owner:player ratio to be more equal. Owners are the ones that invest the gold and the time and have the risk of failure; but, currently, anything we do to increase the gold given to them results in 3.5x that amount being distributed to the economy. In the scheme of things, how much do RIGs generate per day? A little more than is generated by gold grants for OMGPOP, and (literally) over a magnitude less than the amount generated by BG and zOMG.

Posted by: Panagrammic Mon May 16, 2011 @ 03:58am

Read my journal!

User Comments: [52] Viewing page 0 of 2 · Goto Page: 1 2 » [add]

Sabin le Rose
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Commented on: Mon May 16, 2011 @ 04:37am


	OBLIGATORY BAW BUT IM RIGHT RIGS ARE BAD BAAAW. BUT SERIOUSLY. Nice to have a little date to shove in the faces of the people who never listen to me when I present them solid mathematical equations about gold grants.

Commented on: Mon May 16, 2011 @ 04:54am


	I know it is impossible to do for the older RIGs, but it would be fascinating to know if the percentages would be similar between RIGs--I have a feeling it would be. Maybe you can re-run this analysis once or twice a year just to keep the squawking down to manageable levels? I know it won't work to calm things down for the most rabid, who tend to hold onto their opinions even when presented with current data, but it might keep some of the other users from being swayed into outrage over what is, and should continue to be, a non-issue.

WinterBear
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deadrun
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Commented on: Mon May 16, 2011 @ 05:32am


	thank you for this, it's a great break down and is very easy to understand. I tend to use my auto cash to sell a bundle every month back to the market place, I wonder if that's the norm for most users.

Commented on: Mon May 16, 2011 @ 05:48am


	Hi Pan smile . I'm taking it that the 250K figure for the Dolphin is using a 1 gc to 1000 g conversion rate. Do the current numbers projecting that Dolphins are being played at a combined player level/grab amount to return 50% profit (assuming a 500K purchase price using the conversion rate above) to the owners? I ask because the numbers I've been able to cobble together don't support that, but you do have more detailed data.

purplewiz
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Sakura Latte
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Commented on: Mon May 16, 2011 @ 05:59am


	Thank you for this. It always aggravates me when I hear people saying that RIG causes inflation.

Commented on: Mon May 16, 2011 @ 08:03am


	@purplewiz: the average tank with 15+ dolphins is getting an average of 80 plays / day right now, so it's a little more than 50%. There's a high variance on that -- some tanks (probably established ones) are making a profit, others are not.

Panagrammic
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Whip
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Commented on: Mon May 16, 2011 @ 09:19am


	The only reason I have ever said RIG's cause inflation is the indirect cause of putting very rare and very desirable items out there. These rare items make people use things like bootygrab more often to make more gold to be able to buy coveted rare items. (like those fiendish cats XD) But people are gonna quest no matter what. They'd just quest other stuff. Like the 03's. Thanks for posting this! It's really helpful in explaining the real reasons for inflation on Gaia. gives you a giant cookie full of enormous chocolate chips the size of your hand

Commented on: Mon May 16, 2011 @ 09:19pm


	3nodding heart You always, keep amazing me, Pan. Thank you so much for these data.

Tantooden
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GuitaristPick
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Commented on: Mon May 16, 2011 @ 11:20pm


	I bet the more explanation on how things work the less users will get hyped up. Thanks for clearing that Panagrammic. 3nodding

Commented on: Tue May 17, 2011 @ 12:15am


	was very interesting for me to read, thanks for posting!

Nobara
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Euphonious Cantabile
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Commented on: Tue May 17, 2011 @ 03:50am


	Thank you very much for writing this informative journal. Now I can link this journal to every user that goes "RIGS CAUSE INFLATION!!11." I wish I could tip journals.

Commented on: Tue May 17, 2011 @ 07:32pm


	What is the daily income average for 15+ dolphin tank? If your income won't cover your overhead, then you are losing money. If you don't make a profit, you can never hope to move up to a better tank. You have access to all of the data. You know how much tanks are making. You know what they need to make. Adjust the cost of the fish, or adjust the owner's income.

pauvre matou
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Sachie Whitby
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Commented on: Tue May 17, 2011 @ 11:29pm


	I love you Pan. You really are my favorite Dev as I do feel you keep us the most informed. [I even have my very own Pan doll for my avatar.] But I will still like to respectfully disagree with you a lot here. The reason people say things like "RIGs cause inflation" is because every RIG has two or three items that are so ridiculously rare that playing a RIG and getting one is like winning the Gaia lottery. Now you may say that it's not Gaia's fault as Gaia doesn't set the prices, users do. However Gaia cannot be completely blind to the sort of prices these items have or the effect they have on the Gaia economy. When the rare item question is highly coveted, people seem to go into a frenzy trying to earn gold to buy it [if they're not playing RIGs in hopes of winning it or raising enough money that way] because everyone knows the price of a RIG rare is more likely to increase and never decrease once the RIG in question leaves the cash shop. I would like to illustrate my point here further with two items Harayama the Panda from the current RIG versus Angelic Scarf an 03 donation item. To be as fair as possible, I am only going to regard posts from May 12th 2011 and onward as that is when threads regarding buying/selling/questing the panda began to show up. Harayama the Panda: [35mil] 14 selling threads 2 wanted to buy threads 1 quest thread Angelic Scarf: [15mil] 22 selling threads 7 want to buy threads 4 quest threads While there were more scarves for sale during this period, when we look at the supply/demand ratio, the supply of scarves was only about 3 times greater than the demand for it. Now compare that to Harayama where the supply is 7 times greater than the demand for it. Ironically the price of this item has gone up as I remember it being 30mil the first time I saw it on the marketplace. So why does the panda cost so much? Because it's the rare critter item from a RIG and for a lot of people, that's more than enough reason to jack up the price even when the demand clearly isn't there. It's stuff like this that causes a lot of people to point their fingers at RIGs and say "that's the problem" and not something else. If these things were not so impossibly rare in the first place, people wouldn't be trying so hard in to earn gold. Items from some of the earlier RIGs where rares didn't reach the same level of rarity still are nowhere close to reaching a level where they are going to outprice donation items from 03. When event-related items also turn into rare RIG prizes, it just adds to the existing frustration that already exists with RIG rarity. I'm talking about stuff like the Cat Faces [which was a super duper rare grant from Dumpster Dive on April Fool's Day only] and Bunny Brigade [which is a rare Easter-related item from a Cash shop holiday RIG.]

Commented on: Tue May 17, 2011 @ 11:35pm


	@Sachie Whitby: User-to-user sales don't add to the total amount of gold in the economy (and, in fact, remove a little bit via the 2% marketplace tax), so overall they are deflationary. Interestingly, rarity is only one aspect that determines the market value of a cost -- there are many items which are equivalently in rarity but are as much as one or two magnitudes different in market cost.

Panagrammic
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brilliantbluestar_0
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Commented on: Wed May 18, 2011 @ 12:27am


	Hello, Forgive my outburst the other day about Phin Phang - I didn't see where the fish were being re-coded and released again (that is if you saw it). I am an honest person who enjoys your candid communication with Gaians like me and some of the people I see in BG often. Regarding inflation in the MP. Back in about 2008, when I really started using Gaia, when someone was picking on my daughter's friend (one of my 5 part-timers), I was hooked. Wild Things were about 15k and if I found them for 11K I would buy and re-sell for around 15k. That, Jigsaw Puzzles, and slots were how I made gg. I didn't know much about gc at that time nor much of anything - just learning. If I reached about 32k I thought I was doing great!! In about a year's time of data, maybe a year and a half, the MP just went crazy and now we see not just 1 mil but several mil in the MP. I can't imagine kids (which this site was built for) being able to get there on their own "today" without begging or trying to steal or something. It's hard on them seeing all these wonderful shiny pixels and WAY out of reach and my heart goes out to kids BECAUSE I have a heart of a kid but the mind of an adult and LOVE kids. When I learned about BG, I started with the cute cuttle fish, hermit kitties, and eventually got the hang of what made gg. I have a tank of Memphis that were decent back then and a bit less now of course. From the tank statuses you send me daily, I an tell that the 333 amount is what I get and the bonus amount is what the people playing gets. That's great - that is an incentive for people to play the game, rather then sit and let their tank do all the work. However, it hurts me that unless I buy gc, I really can't help my 7 kids (2 teens and their 5 friends). It's not just due to your BG changes, but the games need to be re-coded too to sort of help, wouldn't you think? I'm not upset, I'm going with the flow (well, I was upset the other day but that was because I didn't have all the info and if you saw it through my eyes "without" the info, you probably would have been upset too. I hope you understand that I can admit and say I'm sorry when I am / was wrong. To be honest, I thought I saw you say we would both get the bonuses but I see it hasn't happened yet AND I really would like that. A win / win for the player and the ones who buy the fish to play on. I like giving feedback that is helpful and you can count on me to be logical / practical / as I have taken 2 college tests that tell me I'm balanced - using all 4 quadrants of my brain. Which can be good at being flexible but bad at decision making - thank goodness I'm NOT the one making decisions. As for honest feedback though - I'm opinionated but still only try to give it when I feel there is a need or I'm afraid my foot will just go back in my mouth again. As for RIGs, I do believe they impact inflation - people can buy their way into the system. My suggestion (which is not really towards you - but maybe you can pass it on) is that a cap - a min or maximum amount on things to sell in the MP might help out to sort of keep the good items up a little and better things within reach for the kids. You may predict problems with this that I can't foresee and without knowing, I just have to put my trust into the decision makers at Gaia. Now a lot of people are upset at the BG changes - and if the other games were giving more gold, it might actually even out more across Gaia. Yes, the feeling did come across me to think it hurts my wallet seeing BG being the one affected but then if it helps the MP - let's go with it - if not, what then? I wouldn't like it then. See? BUT there really is a problem of inflation in the MP and maybe this is one step towards that, but I honestly believe people buying their way in, isn't helping. Again, I am on your monthly list for GC x 3 because it is better to help my teens and their friends as long as they are on here. Plus it helps Gaia. I know your site isn't cheap. I have taken VB 2008 before about 3 years ago and can't remember most of it - couldn't handle the higher math in coding (not fresh on my brain at age 42) but I know nothing about scripting - a few html maybe - like what is on here - the color, size, etc. I am with some of your fans - thanks for keeping us updated on the site feedback along with some of the others. I know the lady over the Dumpster Dive and there is a Dev that was good at giving us feedback on the Easter event - kudos to all 3 of you!! Sincerely, (most call me BBS - short for BrilliantBlueStar - not as in sharp but a bright shining blue star in the night sky).

Commented on: Thu May 19, 2011 @ 04:52pm


	Pan, Thanks for taking the time to do updates like this.

David2074
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Love.End.Death.
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Commented on: Sat May 21, 2011 @ 01:44am


	❝I miss the days when I can just go on gaia and play or hang out without reading stuff like this. Incidentally, those were the days when earning 10k was like earning 500k is now.❞

Commented on: Sat May 21, 2011 @ 03:38pm


	Ah I do enjoy a subscription to a journal with decent ED. I don't really play the RIGs anymore since the win ratio is pretty poor, and understandably, the final items sell for a lot of gold because of that, but still, 'tis why I just merchant them. But it seems that their value (in most cases) drops immediately either after the first week or two of release or when the cash shop 'runs out of stock', whichever comes first. Which makes absolutely no sense to me. Wouldn't you expect the items to jump up in price after you can't buy them anymore since, well, you can't buy them anymore. Period. I could be wrong - I don't observe the market trends as intensely as some, but I think this is the case. Then I'd like to think that for every 1 gaia cash I can generate 1000 gold... making MCs worth 250k, and bundles 1mill-1.5mill (excluding ones with recolours of popular items - which sell very well), but it never works out that way. MCs seem to be the worst way by far to generate gold as some can go for as little as 70k, for 250g/c, considering you can get a 350g/c item like Vivacenote that'll sell for around 300-400k it seems stupid that anyone would waste money on the MCs prior to them being opened. It's a typical trap to consider them "an investment". If I had to guess. RIG bundles, and bundles that have a recolour as a bonus item, or an item that works in with a popular set would be really the only way to make good profit... I think the greatest example I've ever experienced was the Mercury's Moon RIG they did a while back, that was going for so much gold for a long time before it dropped a lot, again, probably a problem with the win percentage not being high enough.

Felkyr
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Tiina Brown
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Commented on: Wed Jun 08, 2011 @ 05:54pm


	Hi Pan. I'm with Sachie Whitby and similars on this. However, instead of simply repeating the same thing again (that people go bootygrab a lot more after RIG rares and such, and thereby adds to the money in the system, and the 2% transaction fee only removes 2% of these at each transaction), i will ask about how it goes with the grid on "Time/Booty Grab use compared with Rig releases" that was suggested in the latest AtA. However, to really get an accurate measurement for these kinds of statistics, one would also have to compare with when the most time in zOMG is spent inside the "Boss-Areas", undoubtedly for "boss-farming". But it is very possible that this would not say very much, anyway, because, after all, a RIG is active almost the whole month, so if someone is farming or bootygrabbing in the end of a RIG, might just as well be preparing for the next RIG, as trying to manage enough for the current one. So, what also would be needed, is to make a Poll on why and when the gaians play BG, zOMG, and the other games. Hm, comparing the BG-grid to any of the "minor" CIs, or CS releases in general, might give a more correct picture.

Commented on: Mon Jun 13, 2011 @ 06:40pm


	wow that is some life of a rig razz

BrananaPeel
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konni1231
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Commented on: Wed Jun 22, 2011 @ 09:09am


	wow that is some loooooong storyim impressed and i like i t biggrin dramallama heart

Commented on: Fri Jul 01, 2011 @ 11:26pm


	I cant seem to get the MD5 password to work right. Does it include the first digit and the decimal, or the first digit and no decimal, or no first digit and no decimal?

Treggify
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CleoSombra
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Commented on: Thu Jul 07, 2011 @ 02:09am


	Hi, Pan, kind late, but I'm a bit confused about this: Out of 100 Crystal Overdrives sold: - 10 were kept - 50 were sold to another user on the marketplace for a total of 14.1m (actually, some were sold multiple times) - 40 were sold back to the store for a total of 1.1m ---- Sold where? Sold from the cash shop or the marketplace? How can RIGs be sold back to the store? o_O

Commented on: Thu Jul 07, 2011 @ 03:30pm


	Dev Alert Club is win! (Just wanted to say that.)

Wolferl
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Hera
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Commented on: Tue Jul 12, 2011 @ 04:03pm


	surprised You are awesome whee heart

Commented on: Sat Aug 13, 2011 @ 03:17am


	Thanks for this. I FINALLY have a way to break it down easily for other users - direct them to this journal. wink

Genrin619
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Cursing the wind
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Commented on: Sat Aug 20, 2011 @ 02:13am


	thats so cool biggrin

Commented on: Sat Aug 20, 2011 @ 03:52am


	You do know how much I, and several others, have appreciated what you were doing to help the BG community (and there were some that wouldn't be happy at anything). I sure hope by taking the BG ads off won't cause a lay-off at Gaia. Sure, it was un-pleasant with the delay and us missing some games, but ads help pay for this site. I suggested, that if the game sees a player watching a video, to add a few more seconds to the Tank Owner's game to help. As for how many seconds - that depends on how fast the computer is when it loads, if they are on dial-up, or several other issues. Adding the 10-15 seconds would have taken care of it. Good Luck!

brilliantbluestar_0
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Aithan
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Commented on: Fri Aug 26, 2011 @ 06:35am


	Hey there, Pan! whee Wow. That's an impressive workup you have there and I'm glad you decided to share it with us. Would it be possible to get clarification on the bit where you said: - 40 were sold back to the store for a total of 1.1m and - 50 were sold to another user on the marketplace for a total of 14.1m (actually, some were sold multiple times) ? For the 40 that were sold back to the store, do you mean all of the items within were sold back to the store or do you mean only some items were sold back to the store or do you mean that the RIG itself - unopened - was somehow sold back to the store? For the 50 sold to another user, was this taking into account unopened RIGs and RIG bundles, or, again, the items within being sold back to the MP or Exchange, or, both 0 unopened RIGs and items within? I myself enjoy playing RIGs from time to time just to engage in the gameplay and to see what pops out, but I have not had the best of luck in getting items that would give back the Cash that I spent so to speak. Ivan the Accountant talks about treating the RIGs as investments, but I have yet to pull anything myself from a RIG (I've played Famestar, Emerald Seed, Wrath of Gaia, Fortune Egg, Repo Lamp, Double Rainbow, Valefor Academy, and something else I can't quite remember) that would suggest for me to make an investment from them considering the amount of Cash I dropped into them. On the other hand, your data suggests that 50% of people who buy RIGs sell them off to other people. Is THIS what Ivan means when he says to treat RIGs like investments - buy the RIGS but don't open them and just sell them to other users? Also, simply out of curiosity's sake: For the rarest items in a themed RIG, what is the going percentage of pulls for them? Is it something to realistically expect per bundle or is more like the lottery - a person who buys a single unopened RIG at level 1 could get it on that one try while someone who buys 5 bundles won't get it in any of the 5 bundles? Thanks again for sharing this data and thanks for your hard work; this has given me food for thought! ~ Aithan

Commented on: Sat Aug 27, 2011 @ 07:26pm


	Pan, May I make a suggestion? Some people don't know what a Gold Sink is. I had a discussion with "Recite Your Sins" last night or early this morning via PMs about our conversation regarding her referring to "The Artists" in the Alchemy Thread and explained a lot of things. She really didn't understand that she should be saying Devs instead. My suggestion, is to put on the 1st page something like what you said about the Gold Sink and WHY it is needed on the 1st Page 1st Post. People are saying redundant things. Also, you might want to mention the bug with people using Chrome as a known issue and for now to use a different browser. I read that somewhere else by a Gaian Staff. Might want to mention, the Dev on this project is so busy working on the ideas and fixes - doesn't have time to relay the messages - so some of you others are speaking for him / her. You guys work as a TEAM at Gaia HQ. This might help people and also I'd put it at the top of the newest quotes you have linked to. WHAT IS A GOLD SINK: "........" WHY DO WE OFFER GOLD SINKS: "......" CHROME USERS - "..........." until fixed. THE DEV IS SO BUSY INCORPORATING THE IDEAS EVERYONE IS SUGGESTING PLUS FIXES TO BUGS, THAT SINCE GAIA WORKS AS A TEAM AT GAIA HQ, SOME ARE HELPING TO ANSWER SOME OF THE QUESTIONS. Good Luck and thanks to all of you for communicating again with Gaia's Community!! Probably need to re-word my suggestions.

Magnolia Sweet Tea
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demon-eyes-kyo84
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Commented on: Tue Aug 30, 2011 @ 08:15pm


	ummm i jus wanna kno where to get materials idk where to find them at sad pm me if u kno or something thnks nd bye !!

Commented on: Sun Sep 04, 2011 @ 01:52pm


	over a magnitude less than the amount generated by BG and zOMG bg ??< generated by gold grants for OMGPOP, and (literally) ???<

lolsmileyface67
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Microsoft IV
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Commented on: Mon Sep 05, 2011 @ 01:21pm


	plz sad

Commented on: Fri Sep 23, 2011 @ 07:54pm


	RIGs cause inflation! blaugh

illumi zaoldyek
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brilliantbluestar_0
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Commented on: Fri Sep 30, 2011 @ 09:32pm


	I love and appreciate all the positive things you are doing with BG and the latest Dev Notice here Just tickles me Pink and Pink is my 2nd favorite color!!!! I can tell how hard you are working on making BG more FAIR and balance things out! I just hope everyone else can see through your wisdom! I remember when I was a noob with cuttlefish and loved them - not knowing what it was like in the beginning just learning. I will play just about any tank if it is available and I have the time to play it at that moment! It's about time some of the "Bumps" that don't get shown in our threads and the "lower trigger" tanks get played!! And I am NOT Brown Nosing - I'm giving credit where credit is due from a business point! (There will always be those who don't agree with me and at this point - I don't care). Not sure how this affects MP Inflation, but it helps BG in more then one way!! Thanks! gaia_angelleft emotion_bigheart gaia_angelright

Commented on: Tue Oct 04, 2011 @ 06:41am


	THANK YOU emotion_bigheart THANK YOU emotion_bigheart THANK YOU!!! For the PP Dev Alert going Down - Sigh!! gaia_angelleft gaia_kittenstar gaia_diamond gaia_kittenstar gaia_angelright

brilliantbluestar_0
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turntechgodess
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Commented on: Thu Oct 06, 2011 @ 10:56pm


	plz add me wink wink wink wink wink wink wink wink wink wink wink wink wink wink wink wink lol lol lol lol lol lol lol lol lol lol rofl rofl rofl rofl rofl rofl rofl rofl rofl rofl rofl rofl rofl rofl mrgreen mrgreen mrgreen mrgreen mrgreen mrgreen mrgreen mrgreen

Commented on: Sat Oct 15, 2011 @ 05:23am


	Wow, that.... hurt my brain a little XD lol For more information about my art and links visit my profile

MetonymicMortal
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Eliza Rain
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Commented on: Sat Oct 15, 2011 @ 05:44am


	Fun fact about economics: YOU CAN'T STOP INFLATION. If you can do it, then write a book, and you'll get the Nobel's Price.

Commented on: Sat Oct 29, 2011 @ 11:20pm


	nvm - tried to delete this but couldn't

Treemie
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x-OhhHayley
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Commented on: Wed Nov 23, 2011 @ 12:19pm


	that right there is a journal with thousand's of words and punctuation and sentences emotion_kirakira

Commented on: Thu Nov 24, 2011 @ 04:58pm


	dood i need a blood jem now kus i so brock cus i got hackt crying burning_eyes

golden demon eyes
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nikki_118_vang
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Commented on: Fri Nov 25, 2011 @ 11:33pm


	interesting

Commented on: Sun Nov 27, 2011 @ 12:19am


	biggrin

fenozza
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-Ayrxxx-
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Commented on: Wed Nov 30, 2011 @ 07:39am


	awesome

Commented on: Wed Nov 30, 2011 @ 09:56am


	cool....journal! biggrin biggrin biggrin

XXraXorXX
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Nashoba1
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Commented on: Mon Dec 12, 2011 @ 07:54am


	Hi Pan, I've been seeing a few tanks w/ ghost fish...Some is understandable due to not logging in, but there's a few that log in daily and get plays on these tanks...(I've noticed most are ghost fish as late as last month)...I know it is a glitch but I just wanted to make you aware of this so we don't have a major confusion as in the past!!! Ty...

Commented on: Fri Dec 16, 2011 @ 07:39pm


	Im about one of those buyers that end up keeping the items. Its nice to have this analysis and thank you. heart

spoofete
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SeashellSeal
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Commented on: Fri May 11, 2012 @ 11:30pm


	: question Do I get something from the contest of not? heart heart heart confused

Commented on: Fri May 11, 2012 @ 11:31pm


	Good information, I enjoyed reading this, really. ...and you know...I really should get into booty grab more. XD I hear that is where it is at. Keep up the good work!!

shans
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